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Previous psychological research raises doubt regarding jurors ability to reason about statistical, probabilistic, and methodological issues effectively When judging the probability of certain outcomes, lay people prefer anecdotal information and underutilize base-rate information (Bar-Hillel, 1980; Kahneman and Tversky, 1973; Simonson and Nye, 1992; Stanovich and West, 1998; see also Clifford, this volume) People often are insensitive to sample bias (Hamill, Wilson and Nisbett, 1980) and fail to recognize the unreliability of results obtained from small samples (Kahneman and Tversky, 1972; Fong, Krantz and Nisbett, 1986) Participants in one study who completed a series of inductive reasoning problems varied considerably in their use of certain statistical reasoning skills (eg the law of large numbers, regression, and base-rate principles; Jepson, Krantz and Nisbett, 1983).

ongratulations! You have arrived at a signal turning point in your life s journey A milestone you have lost sleep over, sweated for, prayed for and in some cases beat all the odds It s big! How big Well, not to get overly metaphysical, it is a moment that more than anything symbolizes the difference between mankind and our counterparts in the animal kingdom Other animals must learn everything anew from birth; humans have the capacity to record what they have learned and pass it on In other words, today s commencement exercises, in a very real sense, symbolize the moment at which the cumulative knowledge of all preceding human generations has been passed on to you That s scary big When you think about it in this fashion, graduation is like a giant game of tag Except now you are it.

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Participants in other studies have failed to recognize missing comparative or control-group information when evaluating certain scienti c claims, such as the relation between uoride use and tooth decay (Gray and Mill, 1990; Mill, Gray and Mandel, 1994) Lay people may be unable to reason about scienti c issues in legal contexts as well Mock jurors underutilize expert probabilistic testimony compared to Bayesian norms (Faigman and Baglioni, 1988; Goodman, 1992; Kaye and Koehler, 1991; Schklar and Diamond, 1999; Thompson and Schumann, 1987) and are reluctant to base verdicts on statistical evidence alone (Niedermeier, Kerr and Mess , 1999; Wells, 1992) Mock e jurors in one study underweighed expert testimony about probabilistic incidence rates in favor of highly salient, individuating information such as an eyewitness identi cation (Loftus, 1980).

And you will remain it until you pass it on to the next generation But there is this one little hitch in the knowledge game of tag that I better tell you about You cannot simply pass on the knowledge you received We would still be using stone tools if that were the case Before you can tag the next generation, you are required to give them more than you received This may be the reason that these are called commencement exercises They represent the beginning of your race in Knowledge Tag Until then you remain it The good news is that it is a team effort You are not alone To win in Knowledge Tag, you have every member of your graduating class on your team pulling in the same direction More than that, every member of every graduating class More than that, every member of your generation.

Kissimmee Division, Watershed Management Department, South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, Florida

Similarly, clinical opinion expert testimony exerted a greater in uence on mock jurors judgments in a simulated capital sentencing hearing than did actuarial expert testimony (ie testimony based on empirically established risk factors; Krauss and Sales, 2001) Mock jurors also had dif culty comprehending expert testimony on statistical matters (Faigman and Baglioni, 1988) Only 14% of mock jurors in that study correctly answered two questions designed to assess their understanding of a statistical expert s testimony, and 43% provided incorrect answers to both questions Jurors in actual trials have exhibited similar de cits in their ability to understand statistical and probabilistic evidence (Selvin and Picus, 1987) One eld experiment.

The bad news is that it is a team effort Don t look around you now, but some members of your generation will do diddley squat That means the burden on each of you is to pick up their slack And there is more bad.

Now that you know how to find files, you can get more information about those files. Using less-common options to the ls command lets you list information about a file that you won t see when you run ls without options. Commands such as file

How the LASH strategy works. Where to find valid lease agreements. Twenty key provisions that must be included in your master lease agreement. Three ways to best protect your position as master lessee. Four key points that must be negotiated in a master lease. Why tenant selection is the most important aspect of the rental property business.